Midterm Recap: Democrats Thwart “Red Wave” Expectations in Unexpectedly Strong Midterm
Key midterm races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona saw razor-thin margins as abortion and Donald Trump shook up expectations of a “Red Wave.” Credit: Via Element 5 Digital, Pexels
Democrats defied expectations and historical trends with an unexpectedly strong midterm showing last Tuesday, with the forecasted “red wave” colliding with Democratic resistance and never coming ashore.
Nonetheless, the balance of power is poised to shift in Washington. The GOP is likely to secure the majority in the House, though by a significantly smaller margin than both political analysts and party officials foresaw. In the Senate, key contests that determined control—Nevada and Arizona—fell on razor-thin margins for Democrats, who narrowly retained control of the Senate. And, for the second consecutive election, Georgia is headed to a run-off.
As of Saturday night, 21 congressional races are still unresolved. Of those, 10 are still in doubt, with neither party a clear favorite to win.
What started as a red tsunami in Florida early Tuesday night, with Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis sweeping in the once-swing state by a stunning margin of nearly 20 points, dissipated into a ripple as Democrats—particularly Gen-Z voters—turned out and held their ground. Early reports say voters under the age of 29 broke in “historic numbers” for Democrats, changing the tide in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman flipped a red seat in a contentious toss-up race against Republican Mehmet Oz. Gen-Z-ers supported Fetterman by an overwhelming 46-point margin.
Republicans underperformed, and party leaders and pundits are pointing to two likely culprits: the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision on abortion and former President Donald Trump.
Abortion proved to be a highly-animating issue this midterm and candidates who positioned themselves as bulwarks of reproductive freedom fared well, particularly among suburban women in Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan and New Mexico. According to AP Votecast exit polls, 27% of voters cited abortion as the issue that guided their midterm vote.
And, in the five states where the issue was directly on the ballot, voters rejected anti-abortion measures in Kentucky and Montana and moved to enshrine reproductive rights in state constitutions in California, Michigan and Vermont.
Trump-backed candidates had lackluster nights, which underscored the limits of the former president’s political power while raising questions about his future in the party ahead of his expected presidential bid. In Georgia, Trump’s hand-picked candidate Herschel Walker trailed behind other GOP candidates on the ticket and is headed into a run-off against Dem. Sen. Raphael Warnock after failing to clear the 50% threshold required by state law. Denting Trump’s endorsement reputation, swing voters rejected several far-right candidates and election deniers elevated by the former president in marquee races, as denoted by the New York Times. New York suburbs emerged as a striking exception, with Republicans flipping four Congressional seats in the increasingly-red state.
The GOP secured open seats in Ohio and North Carolina, where J.D. Vance and Rep. Ted Budd won, respectively. In purple New Hampshire, embattled Dem. Maggie Hassan held onto her seat—one especially targetted by Republicans in the final weeks of the campaign. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson defeated Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, securing a critical victory for Republicans. Democrats kept narrow control of the Senate through the victories of Democratic incumbents Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates reasserted themselves in northern battleground states where Republicans have made headway since 2016. Republican Doug Mastriano was soundly defeated by Dem. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, and Michigan voters reelected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Wisconsin voters narrowly reelected Gov. Tony Evers. In New York, Dem. Gov. Kathy Hochul won her first full term in office and made history as the first elected female governor of the state, beating Lee Zeldin in a race that became surprisingly close in the final weeks.
All eyes, however, were on the Florida gubernatorial race—the most talked about single outcome of the night—as DeSantis’s landslide victory and notable inroads with Hispanic voters have positioned him well for a 2024 presidential bid. DeSantis won once-Democratic strongholds of Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, and carried 62 of Florida’s 67 counties. With a 20-point blowout victory, DeSantis has emerged as Trump’s likely challenger for the Republican nomination. In 2020, Trump carried the state by just more than 3 percentage points.
As votes continue to trickle in, GOP candidates appear to have flipped at least 15 formerly Democratic seats. They notably ousted New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the Hudson Valley, the chair of the party’s House campaign arm. Redistricting and a barrage of inflation and crime ads from Republican challenger Michael Lawler thwarted the powerful Democrat’s facially inevitable win in the new 17th District, making him the first DCCC chair since 1980 to lose his seat.
Republicans made fewer gains than they had hoped for in the House—far below the historic average for a president’s first midterm. A year ago, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R—CA) predicted the party would pick up more than 60 seats, and party hopes for a midterm landslide were bolstered by structural advantages, historic trends and national economic woes tarnishing Democratic prospects. With inflation at a 40-year high, new district maps aptly drawn for Republican advantage and the tendency for the midterms to swing in the out-party’s favor, Democrats were poised for a shellacking. Few anticipated the Democrats would have the best midterm a president’s party has experienced since 2002.
Since World War II, the party of the president has typically lost a net of 28 seats, and 43 seats when a president's approval rating was below 50%, as President Biden's is today. The Democrats lost 63 House seats in Barack Obama’s first midterm, and 52 in Bill Clinton’s. As of Sunday morning, Democrats are forecasted to have lost around seven seats in the House.